Bordeaux 2016: predictions vs reality

Posted by Rachel England on 20 June 2017 |

In April, Liv-ex challenged its members – 400 of the world’s biggest buyers and sellers of fine wine – to predict the release prices for a basket of Bordeaux 2016 wines. The results can be found here.

But now the wines in question have been released, Liv-ex is able to accurately judge just how well the predictions stacked up in the face of reality.

On average, merchants predicted the basket of wines would cost €2,060.26, representing a 7% increase on 2015 prices. In reality it would cost €2,154.00, marking an 11.9% increase

In last year’s survey, almost all (98.4%) of the merchants surveyed underestimated the overall cost of the group of wines, which is kept the same each year. All the individual wines also came out at higher prices than merchants expected. Pontet Canet 2016 was the biggest surprise: merchants anticipated it to be released at around €83.11 per bottle, rather than the €108 it eventually came out at.

This year, a large but smaller majority (90%) underestimated the total cost of the basket. However, three of the wines – Cos d’Estournel, Montrose and Cheval Blanc – came out below their expected price, as shown in the chart below.

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